Now that we are deep in the heart of college basketball season, I thought I would offer some thoughts on where we are at so far, conference by conference, and where things will all shake out come tournament time.
1.) The ACC, Big 12, SEC, and Pac 10 are all really bad, minus a couple teams in each conference.
In the ACC, Duke and UNC are the only teams that should scare people. UNC has not been consistent and are still finding their chemistry, but some of their McDonald's All Americans are actually starting to play well, so they will be a tough matchup in the tournament for anyone, as much as I hate to say it. Florida State and Va Tech could win one game in the tournament, key words "could" and "one". I don't think those teams should scare anyone.
The Big 12 is interesting, as there are at least 3 teams who were supposed to be good-to-very good, which have really hit the shitter as of late. KState, A&M, and Mizzou would be those 3. Don't be fooled by Mizzou's ranking either. They don't play well at all on the road. They are just 3-4 in the Big 12, and you should expect several more road L's before the season is over for them. And don't look now, but OU currently sits 4th in the Big 12 in conference wins. Wow. That should tell you how bad it is, as OU is only 12-9 overall on the season and lost some bad non-con games. Kansas and Texas are both legit, final four caliber teams that should both go to at least the Elite 8, but as of this moment you can't convince me that the Big 12 deserves more than 3 teams in the tournament. In fact, the overall crappiness of the conference could end up costing KU or Texas a one seed because of RPI and strength of schedule. That would be unfortunate. Some of the middle of the pack teams will really need to turn it on.
I don't have as much background on the SEC, but I do know that it looks like Kentucky's trio of soon-to-be NBA lottery picks don't look quite as good as last year's version. Other than Kentucky, it looks like Florida and Tennessee have potential, but that's as far as I'll take it. (Yes, I think Alabama 7-1 in the conference is fool's gold, as I can't name a single player on their roster.) Tennessee has really struggled with consistency. Florida might be the team to watch. I think only 1 SEC team makes it to the Sweet 16 though.
The Pac 10 seems to struggle with consistency as a conference. Only two teams in the top 25 right now, and they are towards the lower end of the 25 (Arizona and Washington). Other than those teams, UCLA is in 3rd in the conference and definitely has the talent, they just need the consistency to go with it. I could actually see one of these teams sneaking as far as the Elite 8, but they might be the only 3 in the tournament.
2.) The Big East is great, as usual, and the Big 10 is pretty good.
The Big East has 7 teams in the top 25 and one of them is #7 Connecticut, who is only 5-4 in the conference. That should tell you something about the depth of the conference. If the Big East doesn't end up with two 1 seeds in the big dance, I will be very surprised. The tournament committee will also likely look past the fact that some of these teams don't have great records since they beat each other up, and still put at least 10 of them in the tournament. This is due in large part to the unimpressiveness that some of the other conferences that I mentioned are displaying. I honestly think that if KU or Texas were in the Big East, they'd each have at least two more losses right now. Believe it or not, both teams have weaknesses that no other Big 12 teams are able to exploit. In fact, two of Texas' three losses on the season are to Big East teams (Pitt and UConn). That's not to say that KU and/or Texas wouldn't do well or be one seeds if they were in the Big East, but it would definitely be a lot harder road, as this conference is good.
In the Big 10, I think you have 5 teams that could make some noise. Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, and if they ever turn things around, Michigan State. Besides Ohio State, I'm not sure if anyone can make an Elite 8 type run out of this group, but they all deserve to at least be in the tournament right now. Minnesota may sneak in there too. From what I've seen from Ohio State, Sullinger is an absolute beast, but we all know that guards are often more important in the tournament, so we'll see what happens.
3.) I think mid-majors will have a decent shot again this year.
With some teams struggling and being inconsistent in the top conferences, I think the good mid-major teams that get in the tournament will have a real shot to win some games. Good mid-major teams will be able to beat middle of the pack ACC, Big 12, SEC, Pac 10, and Big 10 teams that get in as at-large bids. That's been the case in the past, and might be true more than ever this year. It would not surprise me if up to two mid-majors make a run for the Elite 8 and 1 makes the Final Four. Now, I'm not saying we have another Butler on our hands this year, but then again, who knows.
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