Who is #1???

Now that Ohio State lost... who is the new #1 in college basketball? It's certainly been a widely discussed topic ever since Ohio State lost yesterday.

Well, here's how I expect the polls to look like when they are released tomorrow.

1. KU
2. Texas
3. Ohio St.
4. Pitt
5. Duke

Here's some further analysis on each team and their case to call themselves number 1 at this point in the season. Bear with me here, I am trying to be unbiased.

KU -
Case for them: With the way the poll voting has always gone in the past, KU should move up into that number 1 spot. If the team ahead of you loses and you don't, you move up... that's just how it usually works. They've also done nothing but play well since their only loss of the season against Texas. They've even looked particularly good with key players (Robinson and Selby) injured for the last couple of games. They are also one of only 3 teams with only one loss on the season, and we know San Diego State isn't getting any #1 love.

Case against them: This one is obvious, but since Texas beat KU by 11 points on the road, there is definitely the case to have Texas ranked ahead of them. Furthermore, Texas still maintains an undefeated record in the conference, so there's the argument that a team who doesn't lead their conference shouldn't be ranked #1 in the nation. Also, all other teams in the top 5 have had much tougher schedules than KU this year. KU's best win of the season is a neutral court win over Arizona. That is a solid win over a top 20 team, but every other team in the top 5 has had a much tougher road to hoe thus far, due in heavy part to the mediocre Big 12. Playing in the Big 12 unfortunately inflates KU's record at least a bit.

Texas -
Case for them: They beat KU on the road, and 2 of their 3 losses are very close losses to good Big East teams. They are one of only 3 teams in the nation still undefeated in their conference. They played a very tough non-conference schedule and have wins over UNC and Michigan State. (I know Michigan State sucks, but at the time they were still ranked pretty high.)

Case against them: They lost to USC. They struggled yesterday against Baylor, almost blowing a huge lead. They have 3 overall losses on the year, whereas KU and Ohio State only have 1. If you argue that they should be ranked ahead of KU because they beat KU, you can also argue that Pitt should be ranked ahead of Texas, since they beat Texas.

Ohio State -
Case for them: They just lost a tough game on the road, and that was expected to eventually happen by a lot of people. That still only gives them one loss, and all other teams have at least 1. They have had a pretty tough schedule this year, so their body of work is probably better than the team that would likely jump them (KU). They are still winning their conference handily, which is a pretty good conference.

Case against them: They just lost, and by all indications, that means they should move down. As I mentioned before, that's just the way the polls usually work. If you lose, and teams behind you don't, it's your turn to move down. Also, the game they just lost was a devastating loss. They blew a 15 point second half lead. That is grounds for moving down, if anything is.

Pitt -
Case for them: All the talk still seems to be about KU, Ohio State, or Texas for number 1, but Pitt may have a strong case here. Namely, they beat Texas. They also beat UConn who has also beaten Texas. They play the toughest schedule of any team in the top 5 since they are in the Big East, and they are still 11-1 in their conference. Like KU and Texas, they have also been only getting better since their last loss. They just won a very tough road game against Villanova, and their only Big East loss was to the 2nd best team in the Big East, Notre Dame.

Case against them: They have two losses, which is more than KU and Ohio State. If their only loss on the season was to Notre Dame, I'd say they are the easy #1 choice in the polls tomorrow... but since they have also lost to very inconsistent Tennessee, it will be a tougher argument for them.

Duke -
Case for them: Not much of a case for them at this point. There are too many teams ahead of them.

Case against them: They recently had a BAD loss to St. John's, and they were lucky to recover and beat UNC at home. With Kyrie Irving, they were the best team in the nation. Without him, they are just a top 5 team.